Is There a Rise in Autism? Understanding the Trends and Implications

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by communication and social differences, strict adherence to routine and intense, narrow interests. No two autistic individuals are exactly alike, and autistic traits and severity vary from person to person. 

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Diagnosis of ASD is clinical, based on standardized criteria that require persistent differences in social communication and at least two types of restricted behaviors. No blood test or neurological imaging can detect or diagnose autism. Instead, developmental history and behavioral observations are part of the assessment. 

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ASD is usually identified in early childhood, but many autistic individuals aren’t diagnosed until adulthood. This doesn’t mean that autistic traits weren’t present during their childhood. Rather, it means they didn’t have access to the appropriate diagnostic care or didn’t fit in with outdated stereotypes of autistic behavior. 

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As our understanding of autism spectrum disorder changes and deepens, practitioners are getting better at accurately diagnosing those who would’ve previously gone undiagnosed or misdiagnosed in the past. As both knowledge and diagnostic criteria expand, the number of autistic individuals in the world naturally increases.

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This increase has led to renewed conversations around autism. What causes it? Why is everyone autistic all of a sudden? How can we prevent it? (Although prevention should never be the goal.) 

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But, perhaps we’re asking the wrong questions. Maybe we should start here instead: Is there actually a rise in autism?

At a cursory glance, yes, the rate of autism diagnoses is rising. Recent CDC data shows that 1 in 31 children in the US are autistic, and according to the National Library of Medicine, 1 in 45 US adults are autistic.  

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In 2000, the rate of autism diagnoses in children was only 1 in 150. In the 1970s, it was just 3 or 4 out of every 10,000. In terms of adult diagnoses, adults aged 26-34 have seen a 450% increase in autism diagnoses. 

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Worldwide, though, the prevalence of autism is just 1 in 100, which suggests that the United States is outpacing other countries in autism diagnoses. However, research shows that rates are rising worldwide, as well. 

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So, there is truth to the statement that autism is on the rise, especially when considering the United States. But it’s more nuanced than that.

With the conversation about increased autism diagnoses comes some panic around finding the cause of autism. There’s the idea that “more” autism must mean that more people are being exposed to whatever it is that makes autism occur. 

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For some, this means concerns over childhood vaccines. However, the CDC maintains that there’s no link between childhood vaccines and autism, and that claim is well supported by peer-reviewed research. 

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There’s also discussion around the environmental factors that may cause autism. Research is still being conducted on what, if any, environmental factors can lead to the development of autism in utero. These potential causes include viral infections and pregnancy complications. However, scientists tend to agree that autism is present at birth, and that many genetic factors can lead to autism spectrum disorder.

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Changing diagnostic criteria

When trying to understand the rise in autism, it’s important to know how the diagnosis itself has changed over the years. Autism was first described in the 1940s as a form of emotional disturbance, and for decades, it was either grouped with schizophrenia or misunderstood altogether. It wasn’t until 1980 that autism was formally recognized as a distinct developmental disorder in the DSM-III, though the early criteria were narrow and excluded many presentations. 

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Over the next three decades, diagnostic definitions broadened significantly, especially with the DSM-IV's introduction of a spectrum concept and inclusion of related conditions like Asperger’s and Rett syndrome, culminating in the 2013 DSM-5, which consolidated these into the unified diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder. As a result, many people who now receive an autism diagnosis would have previously been overlooked or misclassified, explaining in part the sharp rise in prevalence.

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Increased awareness

Awareness of autism has grown significantly among both healthcare professionals and the general public in recent decades, leading to earlier and more accurate identification of autistic traits. As understanding of the spectrum has expanded, particularly in recognizing signs beyond the most severe or stereotypical presentations, parents, teachers and clinicians are more equipped to notice developmental differences that might have been overlooked in the past. 

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This shift means that many individuals who previously went undiagnosed, especially those with milder traits or who masked symptoms, are now being identified and receiving appropriate support. Increased awareness also helps to reduce stigma and encourages more families to seek evaluation and intervention.

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Adult inclusivity

Although autism diagnoses have historically focused on children, recent data show that young adults are experiencing the fastest growth in diagnosis rates. This shift reflects a growing recognition that many individuals reach adulthood without ever being evaluated, often due to milder symptoms or a lack of understanding during childhood. As healthcare providers and mental health professionals place more emphasis on identifying autism in adults—particularly those who were previously overlooked—the total number of diagnosed individuals continues to rise.

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Knowledge about genetic factors

Research has significantly advanced the understanding of autism’s genetic foundations, even though these findings don’t directly explain the rise in diagnoses. Twin and family studies consistently show that autism is highly heritable, and that other disorders may indicate a higher-than-average risk of autism. Those disorders include Fragile X syndrome and Rett syndrome.

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Although these insights have improved genetic counseling and diagnosis, they are not believed to be the cause of the rising autism prevalence. Genetic research helps clarify why an individual might have autism, but plays a larger role in enhancing care and understanding rather than explaining the increased number of diagnosed cases. 

Autism rates vary widely across countries, with prevalence estimates ranging from less than 1 in 1,000 in some low-income nations to 1 in 31 in high-income countries like the United States. These differences are not necessarily due to true variations in the number of autistic individuals—but are largely influenced by disparities in awareness, access to healthcare and education systems, cultural perceptions and the availability of diagnostic resources. 

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In many lower-income or rural regions, autism is significantly underdiagnosed due to limited specialist services, social stigma or a lack of standardized developmental screening. International differences in diagnostic criteria also play a role.

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For instance, some countries may still rely on older versions of diagnostic manuals or place greater emphasis on observable behavior rather than developmental history. As global awareness grows and screening tools become more accessible, reported autism prevalence is expected to rise, especially in areas where the condition has historically gone unrecognized.

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There is no “cure” or pharmaceutical treatment for autism. However, there are options available for adults who want help managing some of the difficulties that arise with autism spectrum disorder. These options include:

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• Therapy: Neurodiversity-affirming therapy is a great option for autistic adults. An affirming therapist can help adults learn coping skills, emotional regulation and more.
• Professional accommodations: Despite misconceptions, many autistic individuals can and do participate in the workforce. Proper accommodations can ease the stress associated with assimilating into a neurotypical workplace. Possible accommodations are clear written instructions and alternative schedules. ‍
• Medication: Though autism itself cannot be medicated, many autistic individuals have co-occurring mental health conditions. Many of those conditions, like anxiety and depression, can be successfully managed with medication. Of course, all decisions about medication should be made with your primary care provider or psychiatrist.
  

Several community supports and resources are available for autistic individuals, particularly adults, to help them navigate everyday challenges. Many organizations offer social groups and peer support networks that provide a sense of belonging and reduce isolation. Local and online communities often host educational workshops on topics such as employment, self-advocacy and independent living skills.

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Additionally, advocacy groups focus on legal rights, mental health support and autism-specific therapies. Employment assistance programs can help with job placements and workplace accommodations, while mental health services tailored for neurodivergent individuals address unique emotional and psychological needs. These resources create a more inclusive and empowering environment for autistic adults to thrive.

Put simply, autism is on the rise. However, a more correct assertion is that the number of autism diagnoses is on the rise. Is it possible that there are more autistic people in the world than ever before? Maybe. The much more likely scenario, however, is that society’s increased awareness, improved diagnostic standards and expanded access to diagnostic care have decreased the number of undiagnosed or misdiagnosed autistic individuals.

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If you’re an adult and suspect you may be autistic, Prosper Health is here to help. We offer fully virtual adult autism assessments, and we accept many major insurance plans. If you’re already diagnosed, we also offer neurodiversity-affirming therapy.

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Our therapists are all experts on all things adult autism, and they tailor their approaches to fit each client’s unique needs. Living as a neurodivergent adult in a neurotypical world can be difficult. We can help make it easier. Reach out to us to get started!